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How to predict the real estate cycle and profit - part 2

I have not lost my mind. I am not offering a “get rich scheme” or a secret way of “timing the market.” The truth is these teachings usually found at high-energy seminars are full of hot air.

Profiting in investment real estate takes time. There may be a few outliers who tell you how they doubled their money in three months flipping a property, but these are not all that common.

Knowing the real estate cycle can give you a strategy of when to buy, hold and sell as well as what to look for in a potential investment property.

In part one, I provided you an overview of the first two phases of the real estate cycle, recovery, and expansion. Phase 1, recovery, is when the market starts looking better after a recession. You may find vacancy rates decreasing, the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates, and people begin to find jobs.

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Renter’s Market

The weak economy has hammered many of the mom-and-pop stores that rent commercial space from Robert Phillips, whose company owns and manages property in San Diego. In some cases he has helped them through tough times by offering them as much as four free months of rent.

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EXCLUSIVE: Treasury Secretary Paulson; Mortgage Plan Will Be Finished Soon

"If there was ever a role for government, it's to help facilitate a solution when innovation has outrun the private sector's ability to deal with it," said Paulson. "And there's been a lot of innovation and complexity in the mortgage market, and we need to do everything we can to help get the industry ready to meet the growing number of resets that are going to be coming in the subprime mortgage market."


"Paulson said the plan will not be a government-run bailout of subprime borrowers, and the banks that loaned them money. Instead, Paulson said, the government is just providing an industry-sponsored solution to borrowers who can afford to own a home but would have trouble making their mortgage payments after a reset.

This is not a government subsidy that we're talking about here," said Paulson. "This is something that the industry will do where it makes sense."

Source: ABC News

Going Commercial

Commercial real estate falls into different segments with their own demands and economics. For individuals the most popular assets are apartments, small offices, strip malls and warehouses. So far the real estate crash hasn't been felt in commercial property. And 2007 appears to show only a slight deceleration in commercial rent increases from 2006.

Source: Forbes

Watch List (Nov. 11-17): Guarded Apprehension for Commercial Demand


Demand Is Biggest Concern to Office, Industrial Markets

The economy and property market fundamentals are losing steam.


Management, Access to Financing Keys To Turning Around Distressed Firms

The dynamics of restructuring efforts for distressed companies has changed.


Outside of RMBS, Structured Debt Deals Holding Up Fairly Well

Underlying strength of collateral supports strong performance in the CMBS and CO sectors.


Three New Firms Formed To Buy Distressed Assets

LandCap Partners, Onex Corp. and The Schuster Group go shopping.


Behringer Harvard Working its Dallas Assets

Slow down in activity could slow sale of assets.


Facility Closures and Mass Layoffs

This week's listings include downsizings in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.


Watch List

Read all of the above stories plus others, and access this week's properties on the Watch List in: Cordele, GA; Fort Wayne, IN; Portage, MI; Biloxi and Ridgeland, MS; Rahway, NJ; Batavia and Henrietta, NY; Dallas and Houston, TX.

Source: CoStar Group

Are We Headed for Recession?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke came to Capitol Hill this morning to try to answer that question.

His message

: The overall economy has performed well since March but will slow in the coming months because of rising energy costs and weakness in the housing, financial and credit markets. Bernanke said that he expects the housing market to hit bottom in the coming months, with the economy starting its recovery in the spring.

Source:  ABC News

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