No Real Commercial Recovery Before 2011
Although the economy has been growing lately, fallout from the recent recession continued to negatively impact commercial real estate sectors in the fourth quarter, but there is hope for some improvement next year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said commercial real estate almost always lags the economy. “Because of the lingering impact from the deep recession over the past two years, vacancy rates will trend higher and many commercial property owners will need to make rent concessions,” he said.
“With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” Yun said. “At the same time, improved consumer confidence would help sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental market.”
Yun notes that commercial vacancy rates remain high in most market areas and are depressing rents.
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 700 local market experts, suggests a flattening level of business activity in upcoming quarters with 55 percent of members expecting the market to improve in the second quarter.
The SIOR index rose 0.2 percentage point to 35.5 in the fourth quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the first gain following 11 consecutive quarterly declines. Although some indicators show that a decline in commercial property values is beginning to flatten, 86 percent of respondents report prices are below replacement costs.
Nearly nine in 10 survey participants said new commercial development is virtually nonexistent in their market areas, and rent concessions are reported almost everywhere.
A Long Way To Go
An independent survey earlier this month showed a couple dozen banks are willing to expand commercial credit this year, which is critical. The lending expansion is aided by the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF), which is encouraging issuance of commercial mortgage-backed bonds. In addition, regulators are prodding lenders to extend terms for many existing commercial loans.
“We have a long way to go for satisfactory levels of commercial credit, but these are important first steps,” Yun said. “Given that about $1.4 trillion in commercial debt will come due over the next three years, more extensive action is needed and the Fed needs to more actively help resuscitate commercial mortgage-backed securities. The credit improvement will mean more commercial property sales in 2010, even some at deeply discounted prices.”
Looking at the overall market, commercial vacancy rates generally will stay at elevated levels, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK. The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.
With a lot of sublease space currently on the market, vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to rise from 16.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter of this year; the longer term outlook is for vacancies to average 17.4 percent in 2011.
Annual office rent is projected to decline 7.2 percent in 2010, following a drop of 12.7 percent last year. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be a negative 27.3 million square feet in 2010.
There is proportionately less industrial sublease space on the market than in the office sector, but obsolescence remains a factor. Industrial vacancy rates will probably rise from 13.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 14.9 percent in the closing quarter of 2010; they could average 14.5 percent next year.
Annual industrial rent is likely to fall 9.6 percent this year, after declining 10.9 percent in 2009. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 93.5 million square feet in 2010.
Retail vacancy rates are expected to edge up from 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 12.7 percent in the same period of this year, and may hold at that level in 2011.
Average retail rent is forecast to decline 2.4 percent in 2010, following a drop of 4.0 percent in 2009. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should be a negative 3.4 million square feet this year.
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is poised to gain from a rise in household formation. Multifamily vacancy rates are likely to decline from 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, and possibly edge down to 6.1 percent next year.
Average rent is projected to decline 3.4 percent this year, following a decline 3.6 percent in 2009. Multifamily net absorption is expected to be 115,000 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year.