Commercial property leaders see tough '08 ahead

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some of the biggest leaders in commercial real estate warned on Thursday that 2008 will be a tough year for the industry, with some owners trapped and forced to sell, creating opportunities for others.

Source: Reuters

California foreclosures down slightly in October, Vallejo-Fairfield near top of list

In California there were 28,755 notices of default in October and a total of 50,401 foreclosure actions -- up 213 percent from the same period last year but down 1.67 percent from the preceding month, according to a report released Thursday.

Source: East Bay Business Times

How to survive the real estate market

The latest property trends and what they mean for small business.

Source: CNN Money

Keller's inn almost snagged on housing deal

Chef Thomas Keller’s plan to build a luxury inn to go with his restaurants in Yountville was almost called off at last week’s Yountville Town Council meeting, during a heated debate over funding for affordable apartments linked to the proposal.  But the planned development is now a go, as the council agreed to back a $300,000 loan for 11 units of below-market-rate housing on Keller property.

Source: Napa Valley Register

Ted Turner's Land Purchases Questioned

Turner has amassed 2 million acres over the past two decades to become the largest private landowner in the country. He owns large chunks of land in 11 states, with most of his holdings in New Mexico, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota, and is restoring buffalo, cutthroat trout, wolves, black-footed ferrets and other flora and fauna that filled the Plains before the West was won.

Source: My Way News

Just Published: Watch List (Nov. 25-Dec. 1): Heading for Trouble in 2008

Economy
Housing Outlook Dims for 2008
Thanksgiving may have kicked off the time for holiday cheer, but the news on the nation's housing front has been anything but cheery.
Structured Finance
Liquidity Crunch Hurting CMBS, CDO Deals; Might Give a Boost to REITs
Commercial market correction should not be as sharp as for residential.
REIT
Could Reckson's NY Office Portfolio Be Put up for Sale?
Australian REIT Reckson New York Property Trust saw its stock price lose nearly half its value this month after Scott Rechler, its chairman and CEO, told investors that the subprime meltdown has put a big hurt on the REIT.
Downsizings
Facility Closures and Mass Layoffs
This week's listings include downsizings in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Texas.

Properties
Watch List
Read all of the above stories and access this week's properties on the Watch List in: Boaz, AL; Fontana, CA; Bristol, CT; Orlando and Plantation, FL; Arabi, LA; Detroit, MI; Minotola and Paterson, NJ; Brooklyn, Penfield and Troy, NY; Oklahoma City, OK; Robinson Township, PA; and Austin, Desoto, Houston, Killeen, Kingwood, Richardson, Seabrook, Temple and Waco, TX.

Source:  CoStar Group

Commercial Property Lenders Stepping Up

Commercial Real Estate Lenders Filling Void Left in Wake of Residential Housing Collapse

Source: CNN Money

CoStar Lead Street (Nov. 25-Dec. 1): Confidence Concerns

A Weekly Report on Future Trends and Plans, Acquisition/Disposition Strategies and Properties Under Contract

 

In this week's issue of CoStar Lead Street, the National Association of Realtors is painting a rosy commercial picture next year -- as they always do; a California bank buys into the 1031 exchange business; a Chicago-based private equity firm jumps into hotels and resorts; Golf Trust cancels liquidation plan - kind of; and Six Flags considers land options. Plus, we tell you where corporations have decided to grow and give you the latest major properties under contract. 
Source: CoStar Group

Going Commercial

Commercial real estate falls into different segments with their own demands and economics. For individuals the most popular assets are apartments, small offices, strip malls and warehouses. So far the real estate crash hasn't been felt in commercial property. And 2007 appears to show only a slight deceleration in commercial rent increases from 2006.

Source: Forbes

Calistoga resort gets OK on affordable housing funds

The master link in a funding chain was put in place last week, opening the way for the long-awaited Palisades Apartments in Calistoga -- affordable workforce housing that was part of the Solage Resort development agreement.
Source: Napa Valley Register

Tracking the Effects of Volatility

The housing market, meanwhile, remains a major weak spot in the U.S. economy, subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth over the last four quarters. S&P believes that home prices will continue to drop through next spring, but this decline should be kept in perspective.

Source:  Fidelity Investor's Quarterly

CAA Annual Legislative & Legal Report

Annual Legislative & Legal Report - October 2007, Presented by the California Apartment Association Public Affairs Department

Source:  CAA

The Whole of Whole Foods

Whole Foods Market Inc.'s real estate cart continues to fill up.  In August, the country's largest grocer of natural and organic foods finally closed on its long-awaited deal to buy Wild Oats Markets Inc. for $565 million. About the same time, the Austin, Texas-based grocer decided to shutter nine Wild Oats stores and shed 35 small Henry's and Sun Harvest locations (all in California and Texas) in a $166 million deal to warehouse store operator Smart & Final Inc. Meanwhile, Whole Foods set a company record, opening 21 new stores in fiscal 2007, ended September 30, and currently has more than 90 stores primed in its development pipeline.

Source: Retail Traffic

 

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Napa, California's Whole Foods Market is schedule to open in December 2007.

Burt

Back to the Future

Libby Gronbach, a 15-year-old Connecticut native, spends a lot of time online, like most of her Generation Y peers...Libby and her peers are already one of the major driving forces in the U.S. consumer market and they will only grow more powerful. Generation Y — which encompasses the 113 million Americans born between 1979 and 1997, or roughly 37 percent of the current population, is larger than the 78-million-strong baby boomer generation and already possesses an estimated buying power of $629 billion annually, according to Iconoculture, a Minneapolis-based consulting firm. However, that's still dwarfed by the baby boomer's estimated buying power of $2.1 trillion a year.

Source: Retail Traffic

2007 Green Building Survey

Exclusive research shows that corporations and developers are rising to meet the new demand for energy efficiency.

Source:  Retail Traffic

US commercial property sales down in October-report

NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. office building sales fell 70 percent in October from a year earlier, yet another sign the credit crunch that began in the U.S. housing market has spread to the commercial real estate market, Real Capital Analytics said on Tuesday. But the five-year bull run on commercial real estate may not be over, although the participants have clearly changed, the real estate research firm said.

Source:  Reuters

Hotel proposed north of St. Helena

The county has received a use permit application for a 50-room resort on the property north of St. Helena known as St. Helena Marketplace, and previously known as St. Helena Premier Outlets.

Source: St. Helena Star

Nearly 16% of 2007 Homebuyers Have Negative Equity

For many homeowners who bought during the last two years when most local markets reached their peak, subsequent declines in value have left them with negative home equity, owing more than the home is currently worth. As of September 30, nearly 16 percent (15.6%) of homeowners nationwide who bought in the last year and 17.5 percent of those who purchased two years ago have current home values that are less than the original mortgage amount. By comparison, less than 2 percent (1.8%) of those who purchased a home five years ago have seen their equity slide into the negative.

Source:  National Realty News

Bangkok Market Train

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Think this would work next to the Wine Train in Downtown Napa?
Burt

Goldman paints bleak picture for housing, financials

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs issued a gloomy report on the U.S. financial services sector, saying housing prices are likely to fall a lot further, write-downs will mount and some mortgage insurers and guarantors will be forced to raise capital just to survive.

Source: ABC News

Bay Area real estate symposium forecasts more gloom

A real estate symposium on Monday - featuring panels titled "catastrophic risk," "subprime crisis" and "economy on the edge," among others - predicted more gloom in the Bay Area housing market over the next year or so.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Window shopping foreclosures

Although the real estate industry would prefer otherwise, foreclosures continue to make headlines. The latest data showed superficial relief, with September foreclosures down 8% from some 243,000 in August, but still more than double last year -- and still with more to come.

Source: MarketWatch

Credit crunch hits U.S. commercial real estate: Moody's

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. commercial real estate values fell 1.2 percent in September as the credit crunch took a toll, and more declines could be in store, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday.

Source: Reuters

Architects "reinvent skyscraper" with Beijing tower

BEIJING (Reuters) - Building a skyscraper should be challenge enough. Ole Scheeren wants to reinvent the concept...China's emergence as the world's fourth-largest economy, and the recognition that came with being awarded the Olympics, created a momentum that allowed for the projects, Scheeren said...The design is so complex that a decade ago computational tools were not sophisticated enough to support the engineering...

Source: Reuters

The Effect on the Real Estate Market of a Divided Jerusalem

When taking into account the causes that influence the real estate market, one usually considers factors such as current trends in real estate purchases, the economy, stock market, mortgage rates, employment resources, the area’s crime rate, transportation services, and a slew of other causes - including the threat of war. National suicide has yet to be considered. I have been asked by a number of citizens, what will happen to real estate prices if the government divides the city?

Source:  Arutz Sheva, IsraelNationalNews.com

 

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Amazing what other parts of the world contend with!  It makes our problems with defunct sub-prime loans and high foreclosure rates minuscule up against war and a divided country.

Burt

Eco-village foes come out for review meeting

A Thursday night meeting to review Pacific Union College’s proposed 380-home Angwin eco-village turned into a showcase for opponents to criticize the project...The proposal calls for 35 percent affordable housing, a Napa County Sheriff’s substation and homes that are so environmentally-advanced that they won’t add to the amount of water Angwin uses now. Developers would also build a central square with local-serving commercial uses to try to reduce the need for trips to St. Helena. PUC officials have said they need to sell college land to developer Triad Communities in order to bolster the college’s endowment...
Source: Napa Valley Register

Checking in With Downtown Hotel

The Inn at Town Center has barely broken ground and it’s already gotten a makeover.   Known by many longtime Napans as a former J.C. Penney, then an antique mall, the now vacant lot at First and School streets, the site will soon become home to a new boutique-style hotel called AVIA Napa.

Source: Napa Valley Business Times

Napa Pipe and Ghisletta development reactions

Two proposed land use moves could add up to 4,200 homes near or within the city of Napa in coming years, but reaction among community groups is so far divided on each one.

Source: Napa Valley Register

Watch List (Nov. 11-17): Guarded Apprehension for Commercial Demand

Economy
Demand Is Biggest Concern to Office, Industrial Markets
The economy and property market fundamentals are losing steam.
Turnarounds
Management, Access to Financing Keys To Turning Around Distressed Firms
The dynamics of restructuring efforts for distressed companies has changed.
CMBS
Outside of RMBS, Structured Debt Deals Holding Up Fairly Well
Underlying strength of collateral supports strong performance in the CMBS and CO sectors.
Funds
Three New Firms Formed To Buy Distressed Assets
LandCap Partners, Onex Corp. and The Schuster Group go shopping.
Properties
Behringer Harvard Working its Dallas Assets
Slow down in activity could slow sale of assets.
Downsizings
Facility Closures and Mass Layoffs
This week's listings include downsizings in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Properties
Watch List
Read all of the above stories plus others, and access this week's properties on the Watch List in: Cordele, GA; Fort Wayne, IN; Portage, MI; Biloxi and Ridgeland, MS; Rahway, NJ; Batavia and Henrietta, NY; Dallas and Houston, TX.

Source: CoStar Group

America's Undervalued Real Estate Markets

But the good news is that market slumps often result in good buys, and solid investments get tagged with bargain prices due to the volatile market. One place to look for these deals is the housing sector, where worries about a continuing dip in home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, and keeping a lid on prices. Looking across the country for undervalued markets, we came up with five picks for city markets or submarkets that are cheap based on what their particular market fundamentals suggest.

Source: Forbes

Flood district buys pieces of Oxbow land

The Napa flood district will pay Copia $850,000 so the district can build flood defenses on the edges of Copia owned land in the Oxbow District. Copia is relinquishing strips of property along and near the river that will be needed for a levee, a flood wall, relocated railroad tracks and construction of a flood bypass, said Heather Stanton, local flood manager. The high price reflects the recent surge in downtown land values, Stanton said. “The city of Napa has become a very desirable location for commercial development over the past few years (and) land prices have increased,” she said.

Source: Napa Valley Register

Building business: Oxbow Public Market, Napa

The marketplace consists of about 35 merchants in farm stalls and retail spaces, each independently owned and operated.
Of the 25 interior spaces, about eight spaces remain available, although many are reserved by a letter of intent.
Taylor's Automatic Refresher, the Fatted Calf and the Model Bakery will occupy the former tire store.
Ten farmstands line the outside of the market.
Current tenants include:
Vendors will open between Dec. 15 and spring 2008.
    •  Five Dot Ranch, a producer of California natural beef.
    •  Fete, providing essentials for any host or hostess.
    •  Rotisario, grilled meats and poultry.
    •  The Fatted Calf, an artisanal charcuterie and butcher.
    •  The Oxbow Wine Merchant and Wine Bar.
    •  The Oxbow Cheese Merchant.
    •  Taylor's Automatic Refresher.
    •  Anette's Chocolate Factory, truffles, fudges, creams, brittles and other confectionaries.
    •  Pica-Pica, native Venezuelan foods.
    •  Heritage Culinary, artifacts and antiques.
    •  Three Twins Organic Ice Cream, organic ice creams.
    •  The Olive Press, olives and olive oil.
    •  Model Bakery, specializing in artisan breads.
    •  Kitchen Library, culinary collectibles.
    •  Tillerman Tea, loose-leafed teas and tea making paraphernalia.
    •  Folio Enoteca and Winery, micro-winery, wine shop and artisan café.
    •  Whole Spice, spice shop.

 

Source:  Napa Valley Register

Vintners eye American Canyon City Hall for health center

The Napa Valley Vintners, the trade organization for some 300 local wineries, has expressed interest in opening a community center in American Canyon, delivering health care and social services to south county residents with limited resources.

Source: Napa Valley Register

 

Yountville's Villagio Inn expanding its spa facilities

YOUNTVILLE – After expansion plans were forced into dormancy for six years, Vintage Estate’s Villagio Inn in Yountville is moving forward with plans to more than double the size of its spa facilities.

Source:  North Bay Business Journal

Targeting the town center or guarding funds?

As Yountville leaders finalize plans for a multi-million dollar town center, one woman wants to give local voters an up-or-down vote on whether to spend money on the project.
Source:  Napa Valley Register

Are We Headed for Recession?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke came to Capitol Hill this morning to try to answer that question. His message: The overall economy has performed well since March but will slow in the coming months because of rising energy costs and weakness in the housing, financial and credit markets. Bernanke said that he expects the housing market to hit bottom in the coming months, with the economy starting its recovery in the spring.

Source:  ABC News

Flood control officials to seek alternatives to south Napa fill site

Flood control officials aren’t making any promises, but the search for an alternative to the South Jefferson Street soils disposal area has begun.
Source: Napa Valley Register

Multi-Family Demand Surges Amid Turbulence in Mortgage Market

Apartment properties remain one of the strongest investments in the commercial real estate market, says Brian McAuliffe, managing director and chief investment officer with RREEF Alternative Investments.

Source:  National Real Estate Investor

Foster Road group opposing Ghisletta development

Fearing wrenching changes to their neighborhood, some 200 residents along Foster Road turned out Monday night to learn how they could kill a proposed annexation that could mean up to 1,000 new dwellings.
Source:  Napa Valley Register

Watch List (Nov. 4-10): Many Shall Fall.

A Weekly Column of Distressed Commercial Properties, Mortgages, Corporations and Conditions:

• Many Shall Fall
• Chinese Wall
• Facility Closures and Mass Layoffs
• Watch List

Source:  CoStar Group

Alain Pinel Realtors to Sell Westin Verasa Hotel Condominiums

RISMEDIA, Nov. 6, 2007-Alain Pinel Realtors (APR) President and Chief Operating Officer Larry Knapp announced that the company has moved its primary wine country office to Napa and concurrently secured the marketing assignment to sell the remaining hotel condominium rooms associated with the prestigious Westin Verasa. The resort development is two blocks from downtown Napa in the gateway to California’s iconic wine country.

CREDIT WRAPUP 1-Greenspan, Soros warn of more US housing pain

..."We still need to accelerate the rate of inventory liquidation, and that will mean bringing housing starts down and sales up. We have a long way to go," said Greenspan, who was answering questions at a CEO conference in Tokyo via video link from Washington...The comments came after Bill Gross, chief investment officer at the world's No. 1 bond fund PIMCO, said on CNBC Television the Fed cannot afford to let U.S. housing prices fall sharply and would need to cut rates aggressively, perhaps to 3.5 percent...

Source:  Reuters

 

County lowers assessments on 200 homes

Napa County Assessor John Tuteur has lowered 2007-08 property assessments on about 200 Napa County homes that are worth less today than their owners paid for them...At Vintage Ranch, one owner who paid $765,000 had his assessment lowered to $688,000, reflecting the current market price, Tuteur said. The adjustment would lower the basic property tax on the home by $770.  A buyer at Sheveland Ranch had his assessment lowered from $621,000 to $559,000, in a $620 shift in annual property taxes. At Newport condominiums, a unit purchased for $362,000 was dropped to $329,000, Tuteur said, spurring a $330 shift...

Source:  Napa Valley Register

Neighbors want answers on plans for Ghisletta land

Residents along Foster Road will be asking city and county officials Monday to explain the impacts of the proposed annexation of 142 acres south of Snow Elementary School.

Source: Napa Valley Register

The changing face of Napa

What a sight Franklin Street is these days. A crane taller than any building in the city sits smack in the middle of the street, hoisting steel beams to frame the three-story Napa Square commercial complex.  While the crane might look majestic from afar, close up it’s a monstrously squat thing, nearly obliterating the view from inside Back Room Wines. That’s where Dan Dawson attempts to sell his fermented wares.
Source: Napa Valley Register

Neighbors alarmed over new St. Helena flood map

Some St. Helena residents are considering legal action against the city after finding their properties suddenly mapped into the flood plain, despite city officials’ assurances to the contrary.

Source:  Napa Valley Register

 

Real estate firm sees an upside to slump

LandCap is one of several new real estate investment firms that seek to exploit the housing downturn by partnering with builders that are carrying too much overpriced land on their books.
Source: Los Angeles Times

Investors Find Silver Lining in Real Estate Market

As Home Foreclosure Rate Soars, Buyers Flock to Grab Distressed Properties

Source: ABC News

IRETO Chairman Bryan Shaffer Warns of Commercial Property Declines and Possible Recession

The credit crunch and possible recession will most likely lead to a decline of property values by around 15% to 20% in the US commercial real estate market, Real Estate expert Bryan Shaffer explained at a New York Real Estate Conference. He believes that "the downturn will last 2-3 years, after which within 10 years property values will be substantially higher than today's value."

Source: eMediaWire

 

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Quarter Point

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, confronted with surging oil prices and a slumping housing market, cut a key interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, the second rate reduction this year.

Source:  ABC News

Foreclosure Filings Soar in 3rd Quarter

A total of 446,726 homes nationwide were targeted by some sort of foreclosure activity from July to September, up 100.1 percent from 223,233 properties in the year-ago period, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.

Source:  ABC News